Tropical Storm FRANCES

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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF FRANCES.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST AND VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  SO...IN SPITE OF THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT FOR 96 AND 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO SHIPS...AS WELL AS
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW 280/14. 
A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS CERTAINLY
AT TOO HIGH A LATITUDE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE STEERING OF FRANCES. 
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANCES WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FURTHER SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT.  AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE...TWO
TRACKS...THE GFS AND THE U.K. MET...ARE OUTLIERS.  THE GFS IS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS WHEREAS THE
U.K. MET. IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND CONU CONSENSUS FORECASTS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 11.8N  41.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 12.5N  43.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N  46.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N  47.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N  49.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.3N  51.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N  56.5W    80 KT
 
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