ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/19...AS QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OR WAVE AXIS MAY BE MOVING OUT SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENHANCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL...OR ITS REMNANTS...ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE AS EARL REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR HAS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH EARL...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EARL IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SEEMINGLY BEING REPLACED BY A MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MEAGER. THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A NEGATIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE EARL BECOMING A HURRICANE. THIS COULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE TOMORROW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.7N 65.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 68.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 72.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.9N 76.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 85.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 93.0W 70 KT...OVER WATER $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 16-Aug-2004 02:42:29 UTC