ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TD FIVE LOOKS VERY GOOD BUT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 2.0 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... OTHER THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MAKING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 280/18. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONCENSUS. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 9.8N 49.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 10.7N 52.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 12.0N 56.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.6N 59.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 14.8N 63.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.7N 71.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 18.6N 76.9W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 81.4W 80 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 14-Aug-2004 09:02:27 UTC