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Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND DANIELLE WILL BE
TRACKING OVER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AND DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DANIELLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BETWEEN 24-48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL...BUT THIS REMAINS AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
DANIELLE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/04.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WESTERLY TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. 
 
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 31.2N  38.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  38.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 31.9N  39.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 33.7N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 36.6N  42.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 41.0N  41.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 45.2N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Aug-2004 02:32:31 UTC