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Hurricane DANIELLE (Text)

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE HAS MAINTAINED A
SMALL EYE THAT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSCURED BY COLD CLOUD TOPS
OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST EYE WALL.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW A CONSENSUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 90 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT
APPEARS THAT LESS DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE AND
THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A MORE CIRCULAR REPRESENTATION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
IN ALL QUADRANTS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2016Z INDICATED THAT THE WIND
FIELD AROUND DANIELLE IS NOT AS LARGE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DANIELLE IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST UNIFORM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS SO
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER...ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.  
 
DANIELLE IS NOW MOVING AT 305/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION...AS EXPECTED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE RECURVES
DANIELLE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE OUTLIER IS
THE GFS...WHICH PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES DANIELLE WITHIN 72 HOURS. 
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH MAINTAINS DANIELLE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON A CONSESUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF DANIELLE HAPPENS TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THE DEGREE OF RECURVATURE
MAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED.

FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 16.4N  35.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N  36.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.9N  38.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N  39.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  40.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 28.5N  41.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 32.5N  39.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 35.0N  35.0W    50 KT
 
 
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