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Hurricane DANIELLE (Text)

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT. 
DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT
85 KT MAKING DANIELLE THE THIRD CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OF THIS
SEASON.  DANIELLE IS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SHEAR
AND A COOLER OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DANIELLE.
 
DANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BEING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EASTWARD BEYOND 72
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL
RECURVATURE OF DANIELLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWEST.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORCAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 15.4N  33.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  35.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.7N  37.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N  39.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 23.1N  40.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 27.4N  41.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 31.6N  40.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  36.0W    55 KT
 
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