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Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 75 KT.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM
WATER AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT
WITH BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 36 HOURS...NHC GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE IS MOVING A TAD NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. IN
RESPONSE...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOW DOWN AS IT ENTERS WEAKER STEERING.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO
DIVERGE ON HOW SHARPLY DANIELLE WILL RECURVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THE GFS KEEPS DANIELLE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE
NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.  GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION IS ALREADY INDICATING A MORE POLEWARD TURN...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. 

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.0N  32.7W    75 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.9N  34.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N  36.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.6N  38.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.7N  40.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N  42.1W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 31.0N  42.4W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  39.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 15-Aug-2004 14:52:28 UTC