Hurricane CHARLEY

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HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
 
THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE
TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.  

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT. 
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
IT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXISTS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 18.6N  79.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 20.3N  81.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 23.3N  82.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.3N  83.0W    95 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 40.0N  76.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 46.5N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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