Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION
FOUND A VERY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY WINDS AT
2500 FT...BUT WAS NOT ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION.  WIND
REPORTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WERE ALSO MORE
SUGGESTIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE.  WHILE STRICTLY SPEAKING
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WE ARE ELECTING
TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES THIS MORNING.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND IF THIS OCCURS A CLOSED CIRCULATION COULD
RE-DEVELOP.      

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/22. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE SCALE-MODELS FORECAST
SHOULD WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SUGGESTS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN POSSIBLY
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE SOPHISTICATED GFDL
AND GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
TRENDING WESTWARD. THE SIMPLER STEERING GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE BAM
MODELS...KEEP THE SYSTEM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. A
WEAKER OR DISSIPATING SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS
LATTER ALTERNATIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT BASICALLY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.  THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  THIS FORECAST PRESUMES...OF COURSE...THAT
THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 13.8N  62.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N  65.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.6N  68.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  71.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  71.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 34.0N  68.0W    45 KT
 
 
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