Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004
 
THE EYE OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND A 05/2210Z
SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING
TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0/5.0...AND 4.0/5.5
FROM AFWA. USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS ABOUT 75 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 05/2200Z
PRESSURE REPORT OF 979.3 MB WHEN THE EYE WENT ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
CANADIAN BUOY 44140.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/39. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
A EXTRAPOLATION ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND USING THE
SAME SPEED OF 39 KT. THIS IS A TAD BEHIND THE SATELLITE POSITIONS
OBTAINED BY TAFB AND SAB...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOY AND SSMI/MICROWAVE POSITIONS. ALEX IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
INTERACTS WITH AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALEX IS ALREADY OVER 16-17C SSTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE... RAPID
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. 

COORDINATION WITH THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE INDICATES THAT RAPID
VARIATIONS IN HARBOR WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM LOCAL TIME
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA...
BETWEEN CAPE RACE AND CAPE SAINT FRANCIS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY CONCEPTION BAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 44.9N  47.4W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 46.4N  40.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 47.1N  29.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 47.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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