Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/15.  THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING ALEX EAST-NORTHEAST TO
EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GUIDANCE AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
A RECENT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION REPORTED 973 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 87 KNOTS ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INITIAL MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON
THIS DATA.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL ENCOUNTER 21 DEG
SSTS IN 48 HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS IS
THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO HURRICANE FORCE THROUGH 120
HOURS WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 36.5N  72.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 38.6N  66.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 40.7N  61.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 43.3N  54.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 45.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 44.0N  20.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/0000Z 48.0N  10.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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