ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX PASSED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NEAR 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH...ALEX WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 85 KT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED OFFSHORE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION. ALEX IS NOW MOVING OUT TO SEA EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING ALEX AS AN IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH FIVE DAYS FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECONNAISSANCE IN THE SYSTEM SINCE 17Z...BUT THE LAST TWO PRESSURE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS MORNING WAS ENDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 85 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS PRESENTLY LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS UNDER ALEX WILL REMAIN REASONABLY WARM FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...AND SO ONLY A SLOW DECAY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WHEN IT MOVES OVER SUB 20C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 35.8N 74.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 38.0N 68.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 39.4N 64.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 41.5N 59.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1800Z 46.0N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1800Z 47.0N 12.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 21:02:13 UTC