Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX PASSED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NEAR 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.  AT
THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH...ALEX WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH WINDS OF 85 KT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED OFFSHORE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION.   ALEX IS NOW MOVING OUT TO SEA
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING ALEX AS AN
IDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH FIVE DAYS FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECONNAISSANCE IN THE SYSTEM SINCE 17Z...BUT
THE LAST TWO PRESSURE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS MORNING WAS ENDING.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 85 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THERE IS PRESENTLY LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. 
SSTS UNDER ALEX WILL REMAIN REASONABLY WARM FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR
SO...AND SO ONLY A SLOW DECAY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  ALEX
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WHEN IT MOVES OVER SUB 20C
WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS.   

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 35.8N  74.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 36.8N  72.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 38.0N  68.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 39.4N  64.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 41.5N  59.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 46.0N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1800Z 47.0N  12.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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