Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE PRESENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT...CATEGORY TWO. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED A VERY SMALL FLIGHT-LEVEL
MAXIMUM OF 105 KT AT 1135Z...BUT MORE RECENT PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 90 KT. THE 105 KT OBSERVATION WAS ALSO IN
AN OPEN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL AND SO THE NORMAL 90 PERCENT
ADJUSTMENT MAY NOT QUITE APPLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPSONDES REPORTED
SURFACE WINDS OF 77 AND 87 KT.  THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE NO
HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE.  

THERE IS STILL TIME FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING...BUT COOLER
WATERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT ON WHETHER ALEX WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OR MAINTAIN A DISTINCT CIRCULATION BEYOND 72
HOURS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13...FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT BASICALLY
ON TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ALEX JUST OFFSHORE
THE OUTER BANKS.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD IN ACCORD WITH THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 34.7N  75.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 35.9N  73.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 38.5N  66.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 39.5N  61.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 44.5N  48.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED OR DISSIPATED
 
 
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