Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PASS INTO ALEX AT 1704Z GAVE A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND
RELEASED TWO DROPSONDES THAT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 AND 46
KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 20 MILE-WIDE
CIRCULAR EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
QUALITY OF THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS VARIED...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL
OCCASIONALLY PRESENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS
COME UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
TODAY THAT HAS ENHANCED THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW.  ALEX SHOULD BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM.  SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  BOTH THE SHIPS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING ALEX TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.  BY 72 HOURS...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/5...LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALSO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE TAKING ALEX OVER OR VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS.  APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD SOON TURN
ALEX ON A MORE NORTHEASTLY TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE.  IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII FORECASTS ARE PRECISELY CORRECT...THEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...ONLY VERY SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM
THESE FORECASTS COULD RESULT IN HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEING
EXPERIENCED ON LAND.  CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS APPROPRIATE TO ISSUE A
HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 32.1N  78.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 33.1N  77.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 34.8N  75.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 36.7N  72.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 39.0N  67.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 44.0N  54.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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