Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
THE STRUCTURE OF ALEX IS EVOLVING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN
CHANGES.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE IS NOW EAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE
LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NO
LONGER DROPPING...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM THIS MORNING
HAS SLOWED...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  ALEX IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH A RELATIVLY DEEP
RESERVOIR OF 26C OR WARMER WATER.   THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROHIBITIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ALEX COULD REACH HURRICANE
STATUS.  AFTER 36-48 HOURS...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

ALEX IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A MORE CONSISTENT MANNER...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/4.  ONLY A WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ALEX IS ABOUT TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
ALEX...AND SO WITH THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THIS
MORNING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IS
BEING DISCONTINUED.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 31.5N  78.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.1N  78.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 33.8N  76.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 35.8N  73.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 38.0N  69.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 44.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 51.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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