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Tropical Storm ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITY OF ALEX.  RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF ALEX
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 992 MB AND THE PEAK 850 MB
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KT.  THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO ROUGHLY 50 KT
AT THE SURFACE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS ALEX TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE...HOWEVER...FOR ALEX TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN SHOWN
BELOW AND BECOME A HURRICANE.

ONLY THE 12-HOUR POSITION FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1200Z 31.3N  79.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.2N  78.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.4N  77.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 35.3N  74.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 12:12:11 UTC