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Tropical Storm ALEX (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
 
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE. THE MID-LEVEL CORE REGION...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA...BUT THE
CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
THIS HAS PREVENTED THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN
RADAR DATA FROM ALIGNING WITH ANY OF THE MANY LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS THAT
CONTINUE TO POP OUT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON 45-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA HAS REMAINED INTACT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ALEX TO MAKE A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT ON MONDAY BEFORE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
BEGINS TO MOVE ALEX QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES ALEX INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF ALEX MAY STILL GET
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN 24-36 HOURS BEFORE IT GETS
CAUGHT UP BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND IS CARRIED OUT TO SEA.
GIVEN THE STATIONARY MOTION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS SLOWED...BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING THE FORWARD MOTION AND THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS MAY BE DECREASING AS INDICATED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE GULFSTREAM
UNDER DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. BY 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ESSENTIALLY CAP THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 31.5N  79.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 32.2N  78.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.1N  77.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 34.7N  74.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.7N  71.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 42.0N  61.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 48.5N  49.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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