Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND 41 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 1000 FT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO ABOUT 33 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
CREW ALSO ESTIMATED THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO BE 35 KT. ON
THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT
18Z. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING
LITTLE AND LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE
ARE OTHER SIGNS THAT THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING...WITH A
CIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE LESS ELONGATED THAN IT WAS EARLIER
IN THE DAY...MULTIPLE SWIRLS NOTWITHSTANDING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LITTLE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS
LATTER TREND IS LIKELY THE PRECURSOR TO A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ALEX COMES UNDERNEATH
SOME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARRIVE. 
CONSEQUENTLY...SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...
BRINGING ALEX TO NEAR 60 KT IN 36 HOURS.  AS THE UPPER FLOW
CHANGES...ALEX WILL LIKELY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC IN ITS
CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND WIND FIELD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON...BUT THE
MODELS WILL PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATE THE DRAG OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.  DUE TO THE STATIONARY MOTION TODAY...THERE
IS MORE TIME FOR ALEX TO BE CAUGHT UP IN THE APPROACHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  NEVERTHELESS...THE CENTER IS
STILL EXPECTED TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 31.7N  79.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  78.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  77.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.7N  75.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 36.5N  72.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 41.0N  64.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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