Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FIND A CENTER AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE POSSIBLE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
DATA...OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE AND CLOUD MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE WITH A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. BECAUSE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...ONLY A SLOW
STRENGHTENING...IF ANY...IS ANTICIPATED.
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS 340/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH 
MOVE THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.  

NOTE: A QUIKSCAT JUST PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AND CONFIRMS THAT
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WINDS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 31.4N  78.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.4N  79.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 34.5N  77.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 36.0N  75.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  69.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 44.0N  62.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 46.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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