Hurricane OLAF

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
...OLAF MOVING NORTHWARD...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO
PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.
 
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OLAF WILL BE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO
THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OLAF IS NOT
WELL ORGANIZED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OLAF WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REACHES OLAF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  85 MILES...140 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OLAF REMAINS A HURRICANE...THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...19.4 N...106.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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