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Hurricane OLAF


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003

...OLAF CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
TONIGHT.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLAF.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145
KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OLAF PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE OLAF.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO TODAY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...105.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:08 UTC