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Hurricane ISABEL


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HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  51A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
 
...ISABEL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO MORICHES INLET
NEW YORK...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND
FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST...VERY NEAR 
ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN VIRGINIA TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
LAND...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...MAY
BE EXPERIENCED WELL INLAND TO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER
STRUCTURES.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 345 MILES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...MAY STILL
OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...36.6 N... 77.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/AVILA
 
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