ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003 ...LARGE HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON TRACK TOWARD THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL. THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB. FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:06 UTC