Hurricane ISABEL

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
 
...LARGE HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON TRACK TOWARD THE COAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT
NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH.  SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS
UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315
MILES.
 
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 73.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  11 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
 
FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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