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Tropical Storm ERIKA


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003

CORRECTED AIRCRAFT PRESSURE PARAGRAPH

...ERIKA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
BEFORE DAYBREAK...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  95.4 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
ERIKA TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  70 MPH...115
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL AND ERIKA SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ERIKA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA.  THIS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS NEAR ELEVATED TERRAIN.  RADAR
DATA SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY.
 
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 95.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN



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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:04 UTC