Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003

...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...RACING WESTWARD...
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  91.4 WEST OR ABOUT
375 MILES...600 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH ...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERIKA
COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK ERIKA THIS
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.1 N... 91.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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