Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.0N 98.0W 40 X X X 40 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 26 1 1 X 28
26.0N 100.5W 17 12 X X 29 BROWNSVILLE TX 45 X X X 45
26.0N 102.5W 2 19 2 X 23 GULF 28N 91W 6 X X X 6
MMSO 238N 982W 6 4 1 X 11 GULF 28N 93W 19 X X X 19
GALVESTON TX 2 X 1 X 3 GULF 28N 95W 28 X X X 28
FREEPORT TX 5 1 1 X 7 GULF 27N 96W 55 X X X 55
PORT O CONNOR TX 17 1 X X 18 GULF 25N 96W 34 X X X 34
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN
D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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