Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.0N 95.5W 40 X X X 40 PORT O CONNOR TX 8 10 1 1 20
25.8N 98.4W 12 18 1 X 31 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 8 15 1 1 25
25.4N 99.8W 3 20 2 1 26 BROWNSVILLE TX 23 10 1 X 34
MMSO 238N 982W 3 11 2 1 17 GULF 28N 89W 21 X X X 21
MMTM 222N 979W X 1 3 3 7 GULF 28N 91W 28 X X X 28
MMTX 210N 974W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W 29 X X X 29
PORT ARTHUR TX 1 X 1 2 4 GULF 28N 95W 22 3 X X 25
GALVESTON TX 3 4 X 2 9 GULF 27N 96W 32 3 X X 35
FREEPORT TX 5 6 1 1 13 GULF 25N 96W 26 3 X X 29
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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