Tropical Storm ERIKA
ZCZC MIASPFAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.5N 93.7W 41 1 X X 42 PORT O CONNOR TX 1 20 1 1 23
26.4N 97.0W 5 25 1 X 31 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 22 2 1 26
26.3N 99.9W X 15 8 1 24 BROWNSVILLE TX 3 24 1 X 28
MMSO 238N 982W X 7 4 2 13 GULF 28N 89W 46 X X X 46
MMTM 222N 979W X X 2 2 4 GULF 28N 91W 42 X X 1 43
BURAS LA 2 X X X 2 GULF 28N 93W 31 2 X X 33
NEW IBERIA LA 1 2 X X 3 GULF 28N 95W 12 15 1 X 28
PORT ARTHUR TX 1 3 2 X 6 GULF 27N 96W 12 20 1 X 33
GALVESTON TX 1 11 1 1 14 GULF 25N 96W 9 13 1 X 23
FREEPORT TX 1 14 2 X 17
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT
C FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
D FROM 7PM SAT TO 7PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN