Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.4 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
26.0N  92.0W      45  2  X  X 47   FREEPORT TX        X 12  7  1 20
26.0N  95.0W       1 29  X  X 30   PORT O CONNOR TX   X 10 11  1 22
26.0N  97.5W       X  8 14  1 23   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  5 16  2 23
MMSO 238N 982W     X  1  9  4 14   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  9 13  1 23
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  2  3  5   GULF 29N 87W       2  X  X  X  2
VENICE FL         29  X  X  X 29   GULF 28N 89W      39  X  X  X 39
TAMPA FL           4  X  X  X  4   GULF 28N 91W      38  1  1  X 40
BURAS LA           4  1  X  X  5   GULF 28N 93W      16 17  X  X 33
NEW ORLEANS LA     2  X  1  X  3   GULF 28N 95W       1 24  2  X 27
NEW IBERIA LA      2  4  1  1  8   GULF 27N 96W       X 23  5  X 28
PORT ARTHUR TX     X  7  4  1 12   GULF 25N 96W       X 18  4  X 22
GALVESTON TX       X 12  5  1 18
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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