Hurricane PATRICIA
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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
0900Z WED OCT 22 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.1N 108.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 106.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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