Hurricane PATRICIA
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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
0300Z WED OCT 22 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 105.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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