Hurricane PATRICIA
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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
2100Z TUE OCT 21 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 304 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 104.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.1N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 104.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
FORECASTER ORAVEC
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