Hurricane PATRICIA

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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
2100Z TUE OCT 21 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 304 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 104.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 104.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.1N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 104.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
FORECASTER ORAVEC
 
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