Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
1630Z MON OCT 20 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 100.7W AT 20/1630Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 100.7W AT 20/1630Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 100.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.6N 105.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 100.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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