Hurricane OLAF
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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152003
2100Z MON OCT 06 2003
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO
CABO CORRIENTES.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.4W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 105.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.5N 106.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 104.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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