Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
0900Z MON OCT 06 2003
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
ON MONDAY.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLAF.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 107.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...INLAND
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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