Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
0900Z SAT OCT 04 2003

...COR TO ADD 12 FT SEAS...
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 100.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 100.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 100.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.4N 100.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.0N 101.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 101.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 102.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 104.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 100.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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