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Tropical Storm OLAF


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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
0300Z SAT OCT 04 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  99.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  99.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  99.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.1N 100.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 100.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 101.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 101.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.7N 102.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  99.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN
 
 
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