Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
2100Z FRI OCT 03 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  99.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  99.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.2N 100.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 102.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  99.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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