Hurricane NORA

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HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142003
0900Z SAT OCT 04 2003

...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY...
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  70SE  70SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.8N 112.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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