Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142003
2100Z WED OCT 01 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 111.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
NNNN