Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142003
2100Z WED OCT 01 2003
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.3W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 111.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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