Tropical Depression TWELVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122003
0900Z SUN SEP 14 2003

...CORRECTION TO ADD POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 108.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 108.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.6N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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