Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
1500Z SUN OCT 19 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  47.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  47.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  47.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N  47.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N  48.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N  49.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N  50.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  47.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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