Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182003
0900Z SAT OCT 11 2003
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  70.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  70.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  70.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  75SE  25SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N  68.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  75SE  25SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.5N  61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 100SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.5N  51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 47.0N  42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  70.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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