Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182003
2100Z FRI OCT 10 2003

CORRECT CENTRAL PRESSURE AND WARNING SECTION...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  69.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  69.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  68.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.2N  70.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N  71.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N  67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 100SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 43.5N  45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  69.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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