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Tropical Storm LARRY


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TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172003
0900Z SUN OCT 05 2003
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  93.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  93.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  93.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N  93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N  93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N  94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N  96.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.0N  97.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  93.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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