Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162003
2100Z THU SEP 25 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  38.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  38.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  37.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.5N  40.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N  42.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N  53.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  38.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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