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Hurricane ISABEL


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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
2100Z THU SEP 18 2003
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
MORICHES INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT
NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  77.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 85NE  75SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......300NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 600SE 400SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  77.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  76.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.0N  78.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N  79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 49.5N  79.6W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 55.5N  76.5W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N  77.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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